First bar for each category represents the pre-2000 period and the one with dashed lines represents the post-2000 period. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of Similarly, Weak and Getting Weaker category has countries with low governance scores during the study period and then further lowering scores over the study period. & McGranahan, G. Urbanization and economic growth: the arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia. We found that the rise in the Government Effectiveness indicatorwhich generally captures the quality of policy formulation and its implementation by the national governmenthas a profound effect on Strong and Getting Stronger countries. Digital twin city projects in cities like Auckland, where wastewater and stormwater networks are monitored in real time, are revolutionizing urban development. Rule of Law and effective governance are necessary to create an environment attractive for private capital investments, which are necessary for infrastructure, industry, and innovation31,32. WebIncreasing evidence highlights the strong and complex interactions and interlinkages among different environmental processes, e.g., between climate change and ecosystem change In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process. The World Bank classifies countries based on gross national product per capita as HI, UMI, LMI, and LI. Ustaoglu, E. & Williams, B. Determinants of urban expansion and agricultural land conversion in 25 EU Countries. It is interesting to note that counter-urbanization has been observed in some countries, such as Tajikistan, Andorra et al., despite this type only having the lowest ratio to total population. Does Internet development affect urban-rural If the transformation of human society since the Industrial Revolution were to be summarized in no more than three words, there would be few better alternatives than industrialization, urbanization, and globalization. Soc. For urban expansion variable, however, we consider only positive rates. Why It Seems Everything We Knew About the Global Economy Is No Longer True. To this end, we explicitly test the relative importance of population growth and GDP growth in shaping ULE across 300 cities and over 45 years in two different time periods (19702000 and 20002014). This has resulted in new trends in globalization and production supply chains and innovations in technology that are reshaping modern manufacturing, city structures and urban lifestyles. PLoS ONE 8, e64727 (2013). Such changes will undoubtedly be reflected in real estate markets as we witnessed with COVID-19 where companies relocated offices to cheaper suburban areas or smaller cities (e.g., San Francisco Bay Area firms moving to cities in Texas in the US), creating the opportunity to convert existing office space to housing inside the city. Urbanization can help reduce income inequality | npj Urban Appl. 28, 193216 (2005). Economic This paper examined the nexus between economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization, population growth, and carbon emissions in the BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019. This has resulted in new trends in globalization and production supply chains and innovations in technology that are reshaping modern manufacturing, city structures and urban lifestyles. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Cities have a strong sense of order and pattern, and are no longer regarded as being disordered systems beneath the apparent chaos and diversity of urban spatial form [13], [14]. & Gitlin, L. The dynamics of global urban expansion (English). Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. Urban land expansion: the role of population and Significant variability in ULE rates is exhibited by Africa, India, and China regions. The implications of this for multiple dimensions of sustainability and global environmental change are significant given the projected urban population growth in countries with low levels of economic development. Yet, there is limited understanding of how this growth will affect urban land expansion (ULE). Previous studies have argued that Chinas urbanization is unique and bears witness to an essentially endogenous process [4]. J. Digital twin city projects in cities like Auckland, where wastewater and stormwater networks are monitored in real time, are revolutionizing urban development. During the study period, the main distributional range has changed from 6080% to 7090% in the higher urbanization groups. Urban governance in India. Exhibit 4. How does urbanization affect carbon emission efficiency Our understanding of urban processes such as land expansion can be advanced if we shift our attention towards the city rather than the country as the unit of analysis. Webeconomic development is not straightforward but mediated by global and local processes, both spatial and historical. Herein lies a scale and geographic mismatch between scientific knowledge about urban expansion and contemporary trends of global urbanization: most of the urban population growth in the next three decades will be in developing countries with relatively lower levels of economic development and yet there is limited understanding of ULE processes in these places. 8, 014025 (2013). Further, urbanization is a complex issue that must be assessed not only in terms of urbanization speed or effects of economic growth. Reg. Google Scholar. & Seto, K. C. Building up or spreading out? Although urbanization is part of the process of economic development, it does not appear to have an independent influence on economic growth . Reserve bank of India. :Prop\;POPgr = \frac{{\frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{{\mathrm{i}} \in {\mathrm{j}}} \widehat {\beta _1}poprtc_{\mathrm{i}}}}{{n_{\mathrm{j}}}}}}{{\frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{{\mathrm{i}} \in {\mathrm{j}}} \widehat {\beta _1}poprtc_{\mathrm{i}} + \widehat {\beta _2}gdprtc_{\mathrm{i}}}}{{n_{\mathrm{j}}}}}}$$, $${{{\mathrm{GDP}}}}\;{{{\mathrm{per}}}}\;{{{\mathrm{capita}}}}\;{{{\mathrm{growth}}}}\;{{{\mathrm{rate}}}}\! The Rule of Law indicator measures the perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by societys rules, particularly as they relate to contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, and the likelihood of crime and violence. Taken together, these trends show increased convergence in ULE rates over time across the world. The largest increase in the contribution of GDP per capita rates occurred in China, followed by India, CS America, and Africa. Google Scholar. and K.C.S. Aguayo, M. I., Wiegand, T., Azcar, G. D., Wiegand, K. & Vega, C. E. Revealing the driving forces of mid-cities urban growth patterns using spatial modeling: a case study of Los ngeles, Chile. All authors approved the manuscript for submission. Some of this variation may be attributable to differences in governance and institutions. City-level Oxford Economic database is proprietary and is thus not freely available. WebIntensive urban growth can lead to greater poverty, with local governments unable to provide services for all people. Introduction Urbanization is fundamentally a process including both urban population growth and urban land change 1. Seto, K. C. et al. Otherwise, the rationale for pursuing accelerated urbanization would be weakened and would need to be reconsidered. 2). A few cities in the Middle East regionDoha (Qatar), Sharjah (UAE), Dubai (UAE)have exceptionally high population growth rates. We carry out a regression analysis between urbanization and GDP per capita. Analyzed the data: MXC HZ. Compelling evidence is still currently lacking, however, and needs to be compiled. First, there has been a substantial change in global urbanization levels and economic development over the past 30 years. The developing countries face a dilemma: after implementing accelerated urbanization to catch up with the developed countries, in 2011 they still had a lower level of GDP per capita than developed countries with the same urbanization level in 1980, in the 4060% group. Balancing economic development and ecological protection is a dilemma that requires a solution. urban haze pollution and economic development affect For this analysis, we chose two indicators based on both conceptual and statistical factors: Rule of Law and Government Effectiveness. Sustain. Our regression model shows that the urban population growth rate has more influence in driving ULE than economic growth in both pre-2000 and post-2000 periods (Table 1, Model I). Note: The trends for the pre-2000 period are not shown due to the data unavailability of GDP at city-scale. 148, 5366 (2015). Urban. WebUrbanization is the transformation of unoccupied or sparsely occupied land into densely occupied cities. Angel, S., Parent, J., Civco, D. L., Blei, A. Each category is denoted by a different color. If the urbanization level and GDP per capita have a positive relationship, and the speed of urbanization and the economic growth rate are also positive simultaneously. Drivers of urban growth in the Kathmandu valley. This analysis is grounded theoretically on the concept of urban scaling and a derivative urban expansion accounting framework (presented in the Supplementary Note 1). The contribution of annual growth in GDP per capita towards ULE is the lowest in low-income (LI) countries and is consistent in the cross-section analysis across both time periods. This study was supported by NASA LCLUC grant NNX15AD43G and NASA grant 80NSSC18M0049. Based on the average institutional score over the study period and difference in the score over the study period, we identified four categories (Supplementary Table 1) for each of the governance indicators, Rule of Law and Governance Effectiveness. We expand on the interpretation of the R2 statistic in the Supplementary Note 2. We selected the year 2014 country level income-based categorization for both pre-2000 and post-2000 models. Sci. Seto, K. C., Fragkias, M., Gneralp, B. J. Econ. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: MXC HZ WDL WZZ. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the Cheshire, P. & Magrini, S. Urban growth drivers in a Europe of sticky people and implicit boundaries. PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. Its precise impact will depend on a variety of factors, such as the mix and importance of different functions, as well as the scale of an industrys revenue (Exhibit 4). Solow, R. M. Technical change and the aggregate production function. It is widely accepted that GIS and associated analytical software have played a critical role in spatial pattern analysis. Urbanization and Water Quality The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we should adhere to the action of preventing and controlling air pollution, and adhere to the principle of joint governance by the whole people and prevention and control at the source. Two key indices are employed to compare the differentiation over time: total population and GDP per capita. Each of these studies have focused on either one specific year or one static time period with country-scale GDP data. Several factors may be driving this trend: we hypothesize that at earlier stages of economic development, GDP per capita growth drives the development of urban infrastructure, providing the foundation for agglomeration economies. Influence Thus, the urbanization level extremes of 90100% also reflected the rising characteristic. contracts here. For analyzing gridded GHSL data, we used raster, rgdal and sf packages. However, there is much variation in national incomes for countries with similar levels of urbanization. Leveraging technology is paramount to creating sustainable and thriving communities within our rapidly evolving world. There is much evidence that effective institutions and governance are preconditions for cities to deliver municipal services and create vibrant, equitable and livable places29,30. With few regional trends, we found distinct variations between the countries in different regions as we moved from pre-2000 to post-2000 (Supplementary Table 2). R packages used for data processing, analysis and visualization were: plyr, RColorBrewer, tidyverse, ggpubr, hrbrthemes, gridExtra, ggrepel, psych, sandwich, and stargazer. This shows that the gap between countries with higher urbanization levels and countries with lower GDP per capita has been widening during the last three decades. 3b). The present study aims to address the following questions: (1) What have been the major changes in global urbanization and economic growth over the last three decades? Additionally, the regional economic development level also reduces the urban-rural income gap in central region more than that in the eastern region. How does urbanization affect In addition, the purpose of this article is to examine the correlation difference between the level and speed of urbanization and economic growth. 4). Thus, the speed of urbanization and the economic growth rate are computed respectively. & Potere, D. The dimensions of global urban expansion: estimates and projections for all countries, 20002050. Accordingly, we capped negative values of both population and economic growth rates at zero. Plan. (a) shows the global pattern of urbanization level in 1980, and (b) that observed in 2011. WebAbstract. Fragkias, M. & Seto, K. C. Evolving rank-size distributions of intra-metropolitan urban clusters in South China. Undoubtedly, the historical facts and statistics reveal that almost all of the developed countries have a higher level of GDP per capita and also a higher level of urbanization. Figure 2b shows that urbanization level is closely linked to level of GDP per capita in 1980 and 2011. Or does economic activity drive urban land use change? The combined effects of losses in the retail and hospitality sectors, rising real estate vacancy rates, and declining use of public transit, especially in central urban areas will take shape over multiple years as we emerge from the pandemic, and the long-term impacts of these changes on ULE remain uncertain. Between urbanization and economic growth at least a causal relationship exists. The global urbanization level increases remarkably during 19802011, and the population peaks are also clear in 2011. A cross-country analysis, Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: A case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China, Urbanization as a threat to biodiversity: Trophic theory, economic geography, and implications for conservation land acquisition, Policies for Managing Urban Growth and Landscape Change: A Key to Conservation in the 21st Century, International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health. Article In other words, and When a country enters the highest income category, population growth again becomes an important predictor. Such policies include the establishment or removal of population migration incentive schemes (relocation payments or tax incentives), metro tax exemption schemes for large employers, and urban growth boundaries. Reg. Here, we selected only city-based studies (251) from the database. Only when all these facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process. The context in which these market forces operate is important: countries at a higher level of economic development and with a stronger Rule of Law or higher Government Effectiveness will have better functioning and highly efficient markets, thus leading to planned ULE43. Our analysis answers the following questions: (1) What are the city-scale patterns of population growth, economic growth, and ULE across world regions for the period 20002014? School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. The panel regression results for speed data (Table 5) imply that there is no significant relationship between urbanization growth rate and economic growth rate. Global Cities 2030. Detailed case studies also highlight the effects of local policies and regulations such as zoning and housing policies23, floor area ratios24, subsidies for transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment25 as additional drivers of ULE. A statistical analysis was made of groups showing different speeds of development (Table 2). Hence, it is desirable to examine the changing global pattern as a whole. (Database.) & Seto, K. C. Upward and Outward Growth: Managing Urban Expansion for More equitable Cities in the Global South. Econ. GHSL dataset are available at https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_bu2019.php. Cities in Middle East show the maximum variability in population growth rates followed by Africa. The site is secure. This suggests that African countries, with some exceptions, are not benefitting from agglomeration economies. Regional variations in percent growth of a ULE with population, b ULE with economic growth (vertical dotted line shows mean percent growth in population/GDP per capita and horizontal dotted line shows mean percent growth in urban land), c ULE, d population, and e GDP per capita (Box plots represents 1st and 3rd quartiles, median and outliers). The results show that effective governance is necessary for GDP growth to affect ULE. The color difference is clearer in the developing world, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa, which represent the bulk of the urbanization process and where urban population growth has occurred (Figure 1). (National Bureau of Statistics of P. R. China, various years). Mahendra, A. The fixed-effects model and random-effects model fail in the significance test, while the pooled model passes the significance test, with a goodness of fit of 0.01 and 0.03; this can hardly explain the urbanization growth rate, so there is no significant relationship between the urbanization growth rate and the economic growth rate, which is consistent with cross-sectional analysis. Similarly, supply is affected by policies such as land use planning or zoning that increase or constrain the amount of buildable land along with geography, demographic factors and market forces42. The attribute data relating to urbanization levels in 1980 and 2011 are put together with the global spatial data and visualized in an GIS environment. In Today we hear that the world has entered an urban age, and an urbanization level of 50% has already been reached by the most rapidly developing country, China [7], [8]. In Model I, our baseline specification, we use GDP per capita and population growth as the only independent variables. Data were converted to 2005 international dollars by deflating current local currency units with a Chilean GDP deflator of base year 2005. Our findings can be used to inform urban land development policies across distinct geographies, economies, and governance structures. Portugali J (2000) Self-organization and the city: Springer. For instance, a citys ULE rate has increased from 0.16 to 0.23 with one unit increase in population between pre-2000 to post-2000. We collated ULE and socioeconomic data at city scale from various sources from 1970 to 2014 (Table 2). Similar trends were observed with the addition of a regional dummy variable. Mahtta, R., Mahendra, A. (2) Is there significant evidence that urbanization speed influences the rate of economic growth on a global scale? The contribution of GDP per capita in explaining ULE has increased substantially in these countries suggesting even strong initial states of Government Effectiveness can be improved and allow urbanization processes to be more closely linked to economic development. Res. GDP at purchasers prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. Table 1 shows values for the urbanization level, GDP per capita and total population of specific countries in 1980. 5). Similarly, we found higher economic growth rates than population growth rates in all 81 Chinese cities. The second highest is in the 2030% range and has 1.16 billion population, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, et al. Although the correlation between economic growth and urbanization (i.e. The observation that the per capita GDP of Brazil is only 7567, not only far below the per capita GDP of those in the 7080% group but also much lower than that of the developed countries in the same urbanization level group, calls into question the complex relationship between urbanization and economic growth. 3, 1624 (2020). This has resulted in new trends in globalization and production supply chains and innovations in technology that are reshaping modern manufacturing, city structures Previous studies have shown a weakening relationship between urbanization and economic growth38,39 in Africa and Asia40, compared to observed patterns in Europe and North America. The model is fixed-effects model, which introduces dummy variables to explain variables. 2a). urbanization Haggard, S., MacIntyre, A. Except for Asia, we labeled each city using the UN defined world macro-regions. The United Nations (UN) estimates that, nearly 70% of the urban population growth will take place in just 20 countries (Supplementary Fig. Urbanization This study fills these knowledge gaps. 11, 205234 (2008). Urban areas play a more important role in national economies worldwide. However, ULE rates are much lower than population or GDP per capita growth rates in both India and Africa. Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integrated Development Third, economic development level, energy consumption structure, foreign trade, and government intervention are positively correlated with carbon emission efficiency. Edenhofer, O. et al.) Journal of Comparative Economics. The following key conclusions can be drawn and discussed. Average annual ULE rates in high-income (HI) countries are significantly different from all other income groups when controlled for population and GDP per capita in pre-2000 (Table 1, Model II). In other words, growth of GDP per capita is modest between 0% and 40%, but dramatic between 40% and 70%. To examine the varying influence of economic and population growth on ULE, we used averages across income groups and geographic regions. Fang, Y. The code used to generate the results in this study is available from the authors upon reasonable request. Moreover, majority of these studies on ULE focus on cities in Europe, North America, and China26,27. Science 319, 772775 (2008). To clarify the relationship between urbanization and economic growth still further, GDP per capita and the growth rates of those countries and regions between 1980 and 2011 were introduced into the panel regression. However, the results also point to the importance of governance in affecting ULE. 25, 465482 (2013). Though these differential regression results appear, at first glance, to be confusing and contradictory, they exemplify the real and complex association between urbanization and economic development. Urbanization and the Wealth of Nations | Science The contextual factors within which population and economy drive ULE are dynamic and may change in unexpected ways. J. R. Soc. Correspondence to Gneralp et al.45 use a bottom-up approach to calculate ULE rates through a meta-analysis of published studies and inputs from a previously published meta-analysis by Seto et al.1. Thus, it is essential to understand the underlying variability because the heterogeneity among cities, even in one region, is high37,44 and is similar to heterogeneity levels between countries.